Inside Indiana Board

OK, here's what it is. I re-ran all of this in my head this morning, to get a better handle on it. I can't promise you that helped, but anyway.

Here's a look at the situation right now:

2012-13 season

Seniors

Jordan Hulls
Derek Elston
Christian Watford

Juniors

Maurice Creek (assuming fifth year)
Victor Oladipo
Will Sheehey

Sophomores

Remy Abell
Austin Etherington
Cody Zeller

Freshmen

Yogi Ferrell
Jeremy Hollowell
Peter Jurkin
Hanner Mosquera-Perea
Ron Patterson

Situation: Right now, Indiana has 14 players on roster for next season, this much we all by now surely know.

This isn't a piece on what's going to solve the scholarship situation, rather simply a window into it. Indiana will need to remove one of those 14 players from scholarship, somehow, by the start of the fall semester.

Looking to 2013-14, Indiana, then, will have an oversign limit of FOUR, because three seniors will be coming off scholarship. There are two things that could change that number:

*It has always (ALWAYS) seemed unlikely, at least to me, but if one of the current seniors pays his own way for his final season, then technically, you're only bringing two players off scholarship after this year, and the oversign number drops to three.

*If Maurice Creek were to, for some reason, decide to graduate with his original recruiting class after next season and not take a fifth year, then there would be four players coming off the books, and the oversign number would rise to five.

So right now, this is what the 2013-14 situation looks like:

2013-14

Seniors

Maurice Creek
Victor Oladipo
Will Sheehey

Juniors

Remy Abell
Austin Etherington
Cody Zeller

Sophomores

Yogi Ferrell
Jeremy Hollowell
Peter Jurkin
Hanner Mosquera-Perea
Ron Patterson

Freshmen

Devin Davis
Luke Fischer
Collin Hartman
Stanford Robinson

Now, there are a few important unknowns to point out in the '13-'14 roster:

*First, there are a number of players on that list who might opt to leave after the 2012-13 season, Zeller chiefly among them. Oladipo, given his athletic potential and progression in the last two seasons, might be another candidate in that regard, and so too might one or more of the five players in the 2012 class, depending upon how they develop.

The key to this supposition (and I cannot stress this enough) is that none of these players is GUARANTEED to come off scholarship after the season ends, which means Indiana cannot sign over them. The oversign number is always the total number of seniors on the team, plus one. So for next season, the trio of Hulls-Elston-Watford makes up that baseline number, and Indiana's oversign number is a flat four.

That means Indiana can commit all the players it wants, but it's only allowed to take four letters of intent in November. Any other players who wanted to join the team would have to wait until April (which is, I would think for obvious reasons, very hard to convince a recruit to do).

*For the 2013-14 roster, you have to assume one of the above-listed players won't be there, purely based on the need to solve this year's scholarship crunch (Unless the solution is for someone to pay their own way). Again, this isn't looking at who might leave, or why. We just simply have to point out that that group, which is right now swelled to 15 players, will be at 14 by the time this maneuvering has to be done, to fit the 2012 class in first, before it's even time to figure out 2013.

The big keys to take away from this are:

*Right now, Indiana is at its oversign limit in 2013, with three seniors expected to come off scholarship and the program thereby allowed to sign four players this November.

*The only way that number changes is if either a) one of those seniors voluntarily comes off scholarship ahead of this season, presumably by paying their own way to make room for all five 2012 signees, or b) if Maurice Creek comes off scholarship NOT this summer, but NEXT summer, as though he were graduating at his regular pace and not with a fifth year tacked on. The second scenario would create four openings next summer, and give Indiana an oversign limit of five.

(It's important to note that Creek would, I think, basically have to announce he wasn't coming back, although Matt Roth didn't have to. I'm honestly not sure how that would work. My guess is the oversign number stays pegged at four, unless Indiana loses two scholarship players this summer somehow.)

I know this is all complicated as can be. It's a remarkably fluid discussion to try and have in any tangible way. Just know that the highlights are that Indiana still needs someone off scholarship by August of this year, and it likely has a full oversign limit of four going into the November period.

What that means for a player like Beejay Anya honestly isn't clear, but it's something we'll keep you updated on throughout the summer.

Oh, and one last thing, for those curious: Assuming Creek stays a fifth year and Oladipo a fourth (and perhaps even Sheehey a fourth — he might have some pro potential), Indiana's oversign limit in 2014 is also four, with a total of three scholarships guaranteed to open up as things stand right now (an immensely important phrase in all this). Right now, IU has two commitments in 2014, Trey Lyles and James Blackmon Jr.

To your first question: Not that I know of. I don't think there's anything saying a player can't voluntarily give up his scholarship and pay his own way, but I'll check on that.

To the second: You raise a good point, in that that would seem to be counterintuitive to the grad transfer rule.

I think you're right on the draft entrants, all three of them. Obviously Watford wouldn't make a difference, since he's already off the books, but I think you're right on Vic and Cody. Which would mean Indiana would need to go find one more player to fill a scholarship next spring. It's all so fluid.

So to take this a step further, could someone give up a scholly, walk on with no financial aid and then go back on scholly later in the career? Maybe this would be a way to keep people in the fold who could play a bigger role eventually- does make u wonder if we have a non qualifier this year- 2012???

And I thought figuring out how to get this year's signing class on campus was complicated. Rest assured, there is a scenario Tom Crean is working under that will reveal itself in the coming weeks to clear up the oversign snafu for this season's class. Then he'll address the next recruiting class when that time comes. The only problem I can foresee is Anya going the way of Gary Harris. I'm not saying that Harris wouldn't have selected MSU regardless of IU's scholarship situation, but with no grants clearly available, I would imagine it makes Bloomington less appealing - especially for a top recruit like Anya or Harris who has his choice of schools.